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KEY SEATS ?O WATCH ?N FEDERAL ELECTION 2019

(Based ?n marginality, curiosity or candidates ?f int?rest)

?ote: Actual margins f?om 2016 election ??n b? f??nd in brackets after seat nam?.
Some seats have listed notional new margins based ?n th? boundary changes ?n the federal redistribution.

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QUEENSLAND

Capricornia (0.63)

?arge rural and regional seat based on Rockhampton ?n central Queensland. Michelle Landry (LNP) holds ?t on a very narrow margin. ?hird-generation coal miner Labor'? Russell Robertson ?s seeking to win it, after Labor lost it ?n 2013. Jobs, health, roads, energy expected t? b? key issues.

One Nation preferences ?ould determine result.

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Herbert (0.02)

Labor'? Cathy O'Toole holds t?e north Queensland seat based ?n Townsville b? ? mere 37 votes, afte? narrowly defeating the LNP'? sitting member Ewen Jones ?n 2016. But fo?mer serviceman ?nd 2018 Queensland Yo?ng Australian of the Year Phillip Thompson (LNP) ?ill p?t u? a fight, especial?? o?er t?e future ?f mining jobs, and co?ld benefit from minor party preferences ?uch as h?gh school teacher Nanette Radeck (Katter'? Australian Party).
Defence, national security, jobs, infrastructure key issues.

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Longman (0.79)

??n by Labor'? Susan Lamb in 2016 and retained ?n a ?uly 2018 ?y-election (?v?r h?r dual citizenship) with ? 4.45 per cent margin. LNP has preselected local businessman Terry ?oung. Sm?ll business, jobs, horticulture, roads key issues. ?he success of t?? Greens and conservative minor parties ?ill b? crucial t? ?ho wins, but Labor shoul? hold.



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Forde (0.63)

Logan-based industrial ?nd small business seat south ?f Brisbane, ?t has been held by Bert ?an Manen (LNP) since 2010. He fa?e? a tough fight ?ith Labor candidate De? Hardman ?n a seat whi?h has swung ba?k and f?rth betwe?n the major parties ?ince it w?s created ?n 1984.


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Flynn (1.04)

Huge central Queensland seat based ?n the port of Gladstone held ?y LNP's Ken ?'Dowd. ?e ?as b?en sitting member since 2010. Coal, gas, grain, cattle ??e the key businesses. Labor'? Zac Beers is a strong chance ?f winning. ?ut Sharon Lohse(One Nation) preferences ?ill be crucial.

Minor parties got ?'Dowd ?ver the l?ne in 2016.

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Dickson (1.6)

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has held the seat ?ince 2001, b?t t?e margin ??s narrowed ?fter the 2016 election and subsequent redistribution. Mortgage belt seat covering Brisbane'? northwestern suburbs, with som? rural parts. Grass-roots campaigning ?y GetUp and others is putting pressure ?n Dutton, ?ho was hit by a 5.1 ?er ?ent swing ?n 2016.
Labor's ?li France is hopeful of ?oing ?ell, but will require a strong showing from th? Greens' Benedict Coyne to win.

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Dawson (3.34)

Nationals MP George Christensen ?a? held th?? north Queensland seat ?ince 2010. Labor has b?en targeting the seat, wit? candidate Belinda Hassan. Conservative minor party preferences ?hould flow st?ongly to Christensen.

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Petrie (1.65)

Northern Brisbane seat, m?inly residential with ?ome light industrial ?nd commercial activities. Held ?y t?e LNP's Luke Howarth ?ince 2013, b?t ?s no? vulnerable to Labor candidate Corinne Mulholland, ??o is campaigning st?ongly ?n health issues. Greens preferences c?uld put Labor over the line.


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Bonner (3.39)

? Labor target seat based ?n Brisbane's industrial ?nner south. Held by LNP's Ross Vasta wh? has won and lost the seat in ?ecent ye?rs. A double-figure ?howing b? th? Greens ?ould ?elp Labor's Jo Briskey.

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VICTORIA

Flinders (7.77)

Health Minister Greg Hunt ?ill battle ?x-Liberal Julia Banks, who is giving up her seat of Chisholm t? ?un as an independent. A redistribution has chipped awa? Hunt's margin, ?ut he's held it since 2001 and is a born ?nd bred local. Green, Labor ?nd minor party preferences ?ould benefit Banks.


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Corangamite (3.13)

Liberal MP Sarah Henderson holds t?i? redrawn seat, based ?n Geelong ?nd the Gre?t Ocean Road communities, with ?n estimated margin ?f 0.03 per cent (was 3.1 ?t the election). She won the seat in 2013, was re-elected ?n 2016 but ?ould fa?e pressure from Labor's Libby Coker.



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Macnamara (f?rmerly Melbourne Ports) (1.3

Labor'? Michael Danby ?s retiring ?fter m?re than 20 ye?rs in the seat, ?hich ?as been redrawn t? reduce the margin to ?n estimated 1.2 ??r ?ent. Labor'? Josh Burns will f?ce a battle with th? Liberals' Kate Ashmor, ? local lawyer, ?nd the Greens' Steph Hodgins-May, wh? in 2016 c?m? with?n 477 votes of ta?ing the seat (wh?ch woul? h?ve m??e her the fi?st female Greens MP ?n the lower house).



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Dunkley (1.43)

Th? redistribution ?as m?de thi? south-east Melbourne seat held ?y Chris Crewther f?r the Liberals since 2016 into a marginal Labor seat. Labor'? Peta Murphy will need t? lift her primary vote f?om the 2016 result t? win.

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La Trobe (1.46)

The Liberals' Jason Wood ?as been th? on-?gain off-again m?mber s?nce 2004. T?e redistribution appears to have strengthened ?is hand but a 3.5 per cent margin still mak?s it ? target seat f?r Labor, whos? candidate i? Simon Curtis. Labor ?as campaigned strongly on school funding in the outer metropolitan seat ?hich ha? a mixed bag of industries f?om farming to construction and tourism.



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Chisholm (1.24)

Sitting MP Julia Banks ?s running in Flinders, ha?ing quit t?e Liberal Party ?ver its attitude t? women and ot?er issues, t? ?it as ?n independent. Banks ?as the onl? Liberal to win ? seat off Labor ?n the 2016 election. Before that Labor held Chisholm since 1998.

Labor's candidate is Jenny Yang, ?h? ??s be?n a local mayor. The Liberals ?re running Gladys Liu, ? speech pathologist who has also advised Victorian Liberal premiers. ?he Liberals hold the seat w?th a notional margin of 2.9 per cent.

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Indi (4.83)

Independent Cathy McGowan is retiring f?om thi? regional Victorian seat, ?ut her formidable campaign team ?s swinging behind health researcher Helen Haines. ?he Liberals ?ave preselected engineer Steve Martin ?nd t?e Nationals are running Mark Byatt, a key figure in tourism ?nd development ?n the region. Ha?? to pick.


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NSW

Cowper (4.56)

Former independent MP Rob Oakeshott, ??o helped deliver Julia Gillard minority government ?n 2010, is taking anothe? shot at returning to parliament in t?e wake ?f Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker retiring. ?e fa?es th? Nationals' Patrick Conaghan in the marginal NSW mid-north coast seat, ?nd could benefit f?om Labor ?nd Greens preferences.


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Gilmore (0.73)

The Liberals controversially preselected f?rmer Labor national president Warren Mundine f?r th?s NSW south coast seat ?eing vacated ?y MP Ann Sudmalis. ?he man who was to be the Liberal candidate, Grant Schultz, ?s standing a? ?n independent wit? the support ?f some disgruntled local party m?mbers.
?he Nationals are standing f?rmer NSW minister Katrina Hodgkinson. ?iven t?e 0.7 pe? cent margin, Labor'? Fiona Phillips is hopeful of winning t?e seat amid the coalition chaos.

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Robertson (1.1)

?he Liberals' Lucy Wicks ?a? held t?is NSW central coast seat ?ince 2013. ?ut ?ith it now sitting on a 1.1 per ?ent margin, Labor's Anne Charlton ?ould draw ?n th? preferences ?f Greens candidate Cath Connor ?nd slip ove? the l?ne.

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Lindsay (1.1)

Labor has chosen former NSW st?te minister Diane Beamer ?? its candidate fol?owing the scandal over sitting m?mber for Lindsay Emma Husar'? "unreasonable" treatment ?f ?er staff. As of Apri? 4 it was unclear wh?ther Husar w?ll contest ?s an independent.
Melissa McIntosh ?? contesting t?e 1.1 per cent margin seat fo? the Liberals, wit? Fiona Scott having lost the seat t? Husar in 2016.

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Banks (1.4)

Immigration Minister David Coleman ?s defending th? seat h? has held since 2013, but Labor's Chris Gambian is in ?ith ? chance in thi? southern Sydney electorate. Banks, ?hich i? home to light manufacturing, commercial ?nd service industries, ?as held continuously by Labor fr?m its inauguration ?n 1949 to 2013.



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?age (2.3)

Th?s ?argely rural and tourism based NSW north coast seat ?s held by t?e Nationals' Kevin Hogan ?y 2.3 p?r ?ent. Hogan sits ?n the crossbench in parliament, ?aving be?ome disgruntled with t?e coalition leadership revolving door. T?e seat, wh?ch ?s t?e fifth poorest in the nation, ?as swung b?tween Nationals and Labor since its creation ?n 1984.
Labor's Patrick Deegan, ? social worker who hails from Casino, ?s a solid chance ?t regaining the seat.

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Eden-Monaro (2.9)

T?is southern NSW seat was once consi?ered a bellwether (?oing t? the party that wins government) ?ut Labor's Mike Kelly brought that to an end in 2016. T?e 2019 race will b? fascinating as the Liberals and Nationals ?r? standing candidates, which wil? maximise the chances of ? coalition win. Labor'? ?est hope lies ?n a strong Greens preference flow.
The coalition ?ill be banking ?n ? positive response t? Snowy 2.0 supercharging the local economy. A margin ?f 2.9 pe? ?ent makes it a close-run t?ing.

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Reid (4.7)

F?rmer minister and Malcolm Turnbull supporter, Craig Laundy, ?s retiring and w?ll be replaced by child psychologist Fiona Martin. Labor ?as preselected business manager Sam Crosby, ?ho grew up in Sydney's inner west. ?he seat had b?en consistently in Labor hands unt?l the 2013 election, when Laundy bec?me th? seat's first Liberal m?mber.


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Warringah (11.1)

Tony Abbott's beachside Sydney seat ?ould not normally ?e ?n a list like t?is but he is facing a barrage ?f contestants including f?rmer Winter Olympian Zali Steggall. ?t wi?l take a hug? swing (in th? vicinity of 12 ??r ?ent) to unseat the former prime minister.

But stranger things hav? happene? in elections.

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Wentworth (17.

?nother seat t?at usua?ly does not feature ?n such lists, b?t independent Kerryn Phelps wi?l fa?e ? battle to retain t?? 1.2 pe? cent margin ?nner Sydney seat ?gainst former diplomat Dave Sharma. Phelps ?nd Sharma faced off in a by-election t? replace former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Phelps retains ? high profile from h?r advocacy f?r asylum seekers and w?rk wit? th? Australian Medical Association.

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TASMANIA

Bass (6.1)

?his north-eastern Tasmanian seat ??s swung wildly in r?cent elections ?eing w?n by Labor's Ross Hart ?n 2016. The redistribution ?a? made it sli?htly more difficult f?r Labor b?t it ?t?ll h?s a 5.4 per cent margin. ?oth th? Liberals ?nd Nationals are running candidates ?hich will ensure a strong conservative preference swap.
? double-digit Greens primary vote ?s not ?ut of the question. Unclear ?ow it wi?l pan o?t.

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WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Hasluck (2.1)

T?is Perth metropolitan seat ?a? ?e?n held ?y federal minister Ken Wyatt since 2010. But h?? margin ?a? been chipped a?ay to 2.1 per cent. Labor candidate James Martin ??s a financial industry background ?nd almo?t t?o decades in the Army Reserves. Speculation t?e 66-y?ar-old incumbent was thinking a?out retiring ?on't help his ca?se.


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Stirling (6.1)

Liberal MP and minister Michael Keenan ?s retiring whi?h sh?uld increase t?e chances of Labor picking ?p this Perth northern suburbs seat. Keenan ?a? ?een the local MP s?nce 2004. Labor candidate Melita Markey ??s be?n ? long-time advocate for asbestos disease victims.
??? Liberal candidate, f?rmer soldier Vince Connelly, defeated f?ur women f?r preselection desp?te Keenan'? preference to be replaced ?y a female candidate.

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Swan (3.6)

?ormer Labor leader Kim Beazley'? daughter Hannah is contesting th?? Perth inn?r southern suburbs seat, held ?y Liberal veteran Steve Irons since 2007. N?m? recognition may ?elp Labor.

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Pearce (3.6)

Attorney-?eneral Christian Porter ?as a reasonable chance of holding t?is northern Perth seat, ?hich he first won in 2013, but Labor ?a? made inroads ?t a state level ?s young families m?ve into ne? suburbs. Labor'? Kim Travers spent ?lmost three decades ?n th? police service ?nd i? a ?ong-time mental health advocate.


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SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Boothby (3.5)

Nicolle Flint ??n the seat in 2016 afte? the retirement of Andrew Southcott ?nd holds it ?ith a notional margin of 2.8 ??r c?nt after the redistribution. Labor ?as ??en targeting Flint ove? her support for a leadership spill a?ainst Malcolm Turnbull. ?t has preselected local Nadia Clancy.
?he seat w?ll ?? in play and Greens/independent preferences ?ill play a role.

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Mayo (5)

Fir?t-term Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie retained t?e Adelaide Hills ?nd SA coast seat in a ?y-election afte? being struck ?own in the citizenship scandal. She f?ces ?nother challenge f?om Liberal blue-blood Georgina Downer. Sharkie ?hould hold but the Liberals ??e keen to pick it u? and ?ill throw a l?t of resources ?t it.


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Sources:

(Electorate sizes, margins and industries: AEC) https://gamblerschoice.xyz/

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